MONUC Press Review - 18 August 2006

As the announcement, on Sunday August 20, of the provisional results of the presidential election (held on July 30) draws closer, today's newspaper headlines in Kinshasa, DR Congo, reflect the excitement about that event.

Partial election results from across the country are still being published in an operation begun at the beginning of the week. Much-awaited, results from Kinshasa "have started being released," La Référence Plus reports. After Kinshasa 3, the results from Kinshasa 1 are now available, Le Potentiel reports. And these results show "Jean-Pierre Bemba in first place, winning 256,416 votes of the 495,545 cast". He is followed by "Joseph Kabila who receives 85,214 votes."

These are still "partial results," warns Le Potentiel, recommending "patience until the trends are known."

In Le Phare's estimation, however, "the provisional results will not be announced on Sunday 20 August." "In several towns across the country, result compilation work has experienced considerable delays," Le Phare explains. "Unless a superhuman effort is made, the Independent Electoral Commission will not be able to announce the results to the Congolese people on 20 August," the paper concludes.

Striking a similar note, La Tempête des Tropiques writes that "announcing the results on 20 August looks unlikely ». Citing sources close to European and African embassies in Kinshasa, the paper says "several bundles of ballot papers and vote statements that were declared lost are still unfound and they will probably not be found before long." Consequently, "there is no need to hope that the results will be available on time," La Tempête des Tropiques concludes.

Meanwhile, Le Phare sees "a run-off [vote as] inevitable".

Supporting that view, La Référence Plus announces that "a second round is certain [as Joseph] Kabila is below the 50% [of the vote] He has lost ground, slipping from 51.9% to 48.6%". Meanwhile, Antoine Gizenga enjoys "a sharp rise in his vote share, securing 11.71% of the votes cast."

With this performance, party leader Antoine Gizenga of PALU threatens "Jean-Pierre Bemba and could heading into the second round," according to L'Avenir. If not, the paper says, Gizenga "would play the role of arbiter in the event of a Kabila-Bemba presidential run-off." And "whichever [candidate] would have [Gizenga] in his camp would win the final battle," L'Avenir believes. "Whether the outgoing President regains ground will depend on his performance in South Kivu ...and in the remaining [compilation] centres in northern Katanga," according to L'Avenir.

Furthermore, nineteen days after the polls, L'Avenir notes that "the provisional results of the presidential race are the only ones to mobilise the Independent Electoral Commission's attention." Meanwhile, the paper says, "the population knows nothing about of the legislative elections, except what they learn via rumours that tell of different winners depending on the source's feelings". It is in the IEC's interest, according to L'Avenir, to put an end to "the circulation of such hearsays, if that's what they really are, by publishing partial results of the parliamentary elections in the same way that those of the presidential polls are being published".

Meanwhile, the European force in the DR Congo (EUFOR) issued a warning to any potential spoilers, Le Potentiel reports. Any isolated elements that would be tempted to challenge the poll results, the expression of the Congolese people's free and democratic will, "should know that any provocation, any intimidation, any attack against those working to ensure a smooth operation of the elections would call for a firm and immediate response on our part," says Le Potentiel, quoting the spokesman for EUFOR.